The Atlanta Fed run rate fell to 2.3% last week. The Blue Chip Consensus is at a 2% forecast. Merrill has a run rate of 2.4% and a forecast of 2.5%. Goldman has a 1.7% run rate and 2.5% forecast.
Last week the the economic news was softer. The Retail Sales came in with less of a rebound than expected and January was revised down. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has been in a downtrend since early February.
An interesting aspect of employment is the change of the complexion of jobs from full time to part time. See below. Blue is part time jobs.
The continuing claims is going up to new highs., while initial claims have been steady for a while. The implication is that it is becoming more difficult to get a new job if you lose your job. This is validated somewhat by the quit rate droppimg to 2019 levels.
None of this means a recession. It may mean slower growth than most economists expect.
The economy has been very mixed with segments recession like while other segments are booming, mostly in services. Services are a much bigger part of the economy than manufacturing.
The ECB meets next week. A number of members have been more becoming more dovish. Lagarde has been more cautious. It could be an interesting meeting. There is an hour Q&A after these meetings with questions answered by different members.
China is doing a lot of nitty gritty changes to aid the economy without more debt.It are lifting rules limiting the number of homes one person can buy and allows lower down payments Last month borrowing was at a multi decade low for a month. The government needs to increase confidence. They are trying hard, but there are obstacles of past policies.
The February data is going to be distorted. With an extra day in a month with fewer days will add about 2% to a number of reports.
Blub
Jerry