The Asian markets were down, HK -0.99%, Shanghai -0.29% ans Japan -2.66%. These markets were open during the uncertain Iran situation.
European markets were down modestly, Euro STOXX -0.37% and DAX -0.56%. The German March CPI was up 0.2% and -2.3% y/y.
In the U S, there were no economic reports today.
S&P 500 -43.86, -0.88% to 4,967.34.
An up open at 5,005 peaked 15 minutes later at 5.015. It reversed and eroded to 4,967 by 12:40. A short rally reached 5,000 around 2 pm. It fell to 4,964 by 2:45. A churn sideways was followed by late bounce to 4.967 !!
It was a wild and crazy night before and Friday. Late Thursday night the S&P traded down 78 points in hours after the Israeli bombing. By the morning the general conclusion was that it was a small attack with little damage. Iran told its public it was a terrorist raid with little damage.
The S&P opened higher as some shorts covered when the raid seemed to resolve some of the worst fears. After a very short rally, the rest of the day was biased down.
The growth cohort had big troubles. The major stock, NVDA, was the main article in Barron's with a negative bias. It broke down below it 50 day MA and declined the whole day, -9%.
Super Micro bombed 22%. It was $150 in early 2024. Several months later it was put in the S&P at 1,250 and did a large stock offering at $950. Today it just announced when it would report earnings. Last time on the notice, it pre announced a dramatic earnings beat. The stock went into a sharp decline. It is highly associated with NVDA.
NFLX reported a huge beat, well above high expectations. It guided to slower growth the rest of the year and said it would not report. new members data in 2025. It declined 9%. There were a lot of traders wanting to sell on the good earnings. It was -9%
Fed Goolsbee has been very dovish. Today he said there is not enough good data to cut rates. He had been calling the 2024 inflation temporary one off. Now almost all members are saying this since Powell's switch early in the week.
There were several strong areas. Banks stood out. The advances led declines quite handily. There was an extraordinary dispersion among the indexes with the NASDAQ the loser. See below.
The DJIA was up 0.56%. The NASDAQ dropped 2.05% and the QQQ 2.07%. The IWM was +0.24%.
WTI had a wild experience. Last night it hit 89 after the bombing was announced. By the morning it was down. It ended up $0.12 to 82.22. The XOP rose 1.1% and the XLE 0.6%.
The 10 yr T bond rate slipped a bit in all of the confusion, -3.0 bps to 4.617% The KBWB gained 2.0%. The XLU was +1.5%.
The VIX also had a volatile time, way up first and then down. It ended up 4% at 18.71. The advances led, the NYSE 2.2 to 1 and the NASDAQ 1.1 to 1!!! The NYSE volume was average. The NASDAQ was above average.
On Sunday, I will have a lengthy discussion about the state of the growth cohort !!!
Blub, blub