Market Intelligence
A stable market buying still evident
The Asian markets were soft, HK -0.20%, Shanghai -0.03% and Japan -0.03%. China is talking about increasing incentives on EV 's to handle the over capacity.
European markets were weak again, Euro STOXX -1.05% and DAX p-0.21%. The EU Trade Surplus improved to E16.2 billion from E14..0 billion.
In the U S, the PPI came in mostly better than expected.
PrioPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M0.1 %0.3 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y2.6 % 2.5 %2.5 % to 2.8 % 2.3 %
Ex-Food & Energy - M/M0.1 %0.4 %0.2 %0.2. % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y3.0 % 2.6 %2.7 % to 3.2 % 2.6 %
The Industrial Production was up 0.3%. The Utilities were strong. Manufacturing was 0.1% from 0.3%.
S&P 500 +19.94, +0.32% to 6,263.70.
After an opening of 6,255 it churned until 11:10. It slid to 6,202 by 11:40. It rallied to 6,256 by 1:40. The rest of the day was a churn to a close of 6,264.,
The market was stable with an upward bias much of the day. There was a sudden blip down when news reported that Trump had written a letter to fire J Powell. Within an hour Trump was on TV doing Q&A. He denied that he fired Powell.
I suspect he wrote the letter when he was talking to Republican representatives the previous night and changed his mind.
The PPI caused a dip in the 10 yr T bond rate, 2.8 bps to 4.461%. This withstood a spike up on the Powell firing announcement.
The KBWB rose 0.3%. There are good earnings reports but the stocks had already run up a lot. The XLU eked out +0.05%
The DJIA +0.53%. The NASDAQ gained 0.25% and QQQ 0.10%. The IWM was +0.99% !!
WTI slipped 0.14 to 66.38. The XOP dropped 1.6% and the XLE 0.9%.
It looks like oil production may be peaking unless prices rise. The top part is U S production. The bottom is the rig count in a steady erosion.
The VIX fell 1.2%. The advances were good, NYSE 1.6 to 1 and the NASDAQ 2.0 to 1.
The NYSE volume was slightly above average. The NASDAQ was 50% above average!!
The Beige Book had a minor increase in activity.
Tomorrow we get a Retail Sales report. There is expected to be a rebound from the weak report last month.
PriorConsensusConsensus Range
Retail Sales - M/M-0.9 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %
Ex-Vehicles - M/M-0.3 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.5 %
Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M-0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %
Blub
Jerry
