The Atlanta Fed Q 1 GDP run rate is at 2.9%. The Blue Chip Consensus forecast is at a 2.2% forecast.. Merrill is at a run rate of 2.1% and a forecast of 2.5%, J Morgan is at a 2.2% forecast.
Last week we had strong March Retail Sales,1%, above expectations. It was aided by having Easter in March compared to April last year. The interest rates edged up. There is a generally a more positive tone of expectations with many analysts says saying there is no need to cut rates.
The critical debate is more in the vein of will the economy pick up growth with a lot of ramifications. Some have growth edging up with others at a lower but positive rate. There are signs of labor possibly slowing with data like a a sharp decline in the quit rate. It is difficult call the pace with high confidence.
The EU growth rate was notched up by Merrill from 0.4% to 0.5%.Data has shown some improvement in recent weeks, but analysts are hesitant to raise forecasts. The Bundesbank raised its Q1 forecast, but said it is not sure if it will follow through to the second quarter?
China reported Q 1 growth at 5.3% , in line line. It was encouraging, although Retails Sales were up 3.1% compared a consensus 5%. There remains many cross currents, but Xi is trying hard.
This week the Q 1 GDP will be reported on Thursday. The key report is the PCE inflation numbers. It is controversial with most having a minor edge up, while others of have a down tick, Blub Monthly numbers are tough to predict in a multi faceted indicator.
Blub
Jerry